Creating the computer models for a disaster 2010-May-27 at 12:18 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: 3-D, cpu, modeling, oil
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I love this story. Within a day, these people got time on a supercomputer and started working on creating 3-D models of what the oil spill might look like… especially if a hurricane comes through the Gulf, which is likely.
Researchers race to produce 3D models of BP oil spill, by Patrick Thibodeau, 26-May-2010
Scientists have embarked on a crash effort to use one the world’s largest supercomputers to create 3D models to simulate how BP’s massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill will affect coastal areas.
Acting within 24 hours of receiving a request from researchers, the National Science Foundation late last week made an emergency allocation of 1 million compute hours on a supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center at the University of Texas to study how the oil spreading from BP’s gusher will affect coastlines.
The goal is to produce models that can forecast how the oil may spread in environmentally sensitive areas by showing in detail what happens when oil interacts with marshes, vegetation and currents.
The amazing part of this, for me, is that we’re so close to being able to create amazingly complicated 3-D models – that even take fluid dynamics into account – that there are computer scientists today who think it’s important to do for this oil spill.
We’re not quite there – the massive computational power required to accurately model a spill like this won’t come for another few doublings of CPU, memory, storage, and the like – but we’ll be there soon.
"The hope — and I’m being optimistic — is that it would you give you a much more accurate forecast of a potential impact by geography and potentially by what kind of impact is going to occur," said Wells. The 2D models "haven’t done very well to date," he explained.
And the next time – and I hope there won’t be a next time – we’ll know exactly how to react, because we’ll be able to verify through computer modeling that our responses are optimal before we even start. We’ll have “multiple options processed overnight” kind-of-power. I know that doesn’t clean up the oil, but it sure helps in resource allocation.
The smoking gun on BP 2010-May-27 at 01:10 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: BP, capitalism, ecology, oil, Solar
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BP Used Riskier Method to Seal Oil Well Before Blast, by Ian Urbina, 26-May-2010
Several days before the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, BP officials chose, partly for financial reasons, to use a type of casing for the well that the company knew was the riskier of two options, according to a BP document.
The concern with the method BP chose, the document said, was that if the cement around the casing pipe did not seal properly, gases could leak all the way to the wellhead, where only a single seal would serve as a barrier.
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Workers from the rig and company officials have said that hours before the explosion, gases were leaking through the cement, which had been set in place by the oil services contractor, Halliburton. Investigators have said these leaks were the likely cause of the explosion.
I try not to get too involved in the details of any of these big, horrible examples of Corporations Behaving Badly, because… well, I know. I know they’re going to do it. I know that some corporate cultures encourage it more than others. I know that it’s inevitable, almost without regard for the developmental center-of-gravity of the company. I just think that they’re the exceptions, not the rules.
And then you get an incident like this. Simply put, the worst ecological disaster in the history of the United States.
It’s just such a punch in the gut, when you really let it sink in. The worst ecological disaster, ever, and it happened on our watch.
We thought we were past this kind of thing. We thought something of this magnitude would never happen now… that it was something from grainy video of the 1980’s, not from our world.
So now we’re seeing some of the problems that crop up when we let Orange/Achiever run amok, deregulated and even unregulated, in our financial systems, and our energy systems… and our food systems….
And the natural move over the coming years will be for more regulation, and Orange/Achiever will scream bloody murder the entire way, but we have to support Green/Individualist policies – shaving off the rougher edges – but moving us beyond the Orange/Achiever worldview into something that wishes to give a value to things not quantifiable.
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In the meantime… this is the outline of the case against BP, and it’s fairly damning. I know it’s painful to dig into the details, but if you want to read just one article to explain quickly and succinctly what led up to the explosion of the oil rig, and at the same time allowed the automatic cut-off systems to fail, this is the one.
Jesus, it’s bad. Let me just say, as someone who has spent a bit of time thinking about mission-critical systems, that this entire scenario is an unimaginable failure of risk planning and mitigation strategies for something that can’t ever, ever, ever fail.
Once it had failed, I do think that BP did everything it could think of doing to fix it, with no success thus far.
But once it had failed, it was too late. There was no amount of cost savings on an individual well that would be worth the incalculable risk of complete system failure, and BP, through its culture, showed that it didn’t understand that simple fact… and therefore didn’t live up to its responsibility as a global corporation.
What kind of international legal treatment does a company that just screwed up this badly, this systematically, deserve? What kind of legal responsibility do the Chairman and CEO have? Is this the first international “death sentence” for a company we somehow hand down?
No, of course not – the Europeans don’t do capital punishment, right? – but the name “BP” is, for several generations, going to be associated first and foremost with an ecological disaster so awful it replaces the Exxon Valdez as the canonical example of one.
And in the meantime, this is going to be a very difficult time to be working at BP. For years. And whatever it has coming to it, from every legal system on Earth, it deserves. But it’ll survive.
Until solar.
Only global banking regulations make sense now 2010-May-26 at 17:47 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: banking, capital, economy, Obama
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Regulators Seek Global Capital Rule, by Binyamin Appelbaum, 25-May-2010
Now one of the most consequential decisions about new restraints on the banking industry — how much more capital banks should hold in their rainy day reserves — is being decided not on Capitol Hill but far from Washington, by a committee based in Basel, Switzerland.
The Obama administration is pursuing an international agreement to make banks hold significantly larger reserves, which it regards as essential to increase the stability of the global financial system. It wants to complete the negotiations, which are being coordinated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, by the end of the year.
Having tighter capital requirements only in the United States would drive investment to other places in the world through arbitrage. The Obama Administration rightly now looks for a global consensus on a new, higher level of capital reserves for banks to prevent another global economic crisis like the one that we just experienced.
As you might imagine, the banks have reacted with shock and horror at the thought that they might need to be better capitalized:
Banks also warned that governments were piling on proposals to tax and constrain the beleaguered industry.
“The cumulative financial impact represents a level of conservatism so extreme that it will harm the banking sector, banking customers and national economies,” Wells Fargo’s chief financial officer, Howard I. Atkins, wrote in a letter to the committee.
If the “harm” is more security vs. slightly more profits for banks… I’ll take the security right now, thanks very much.
This process is inevitable after what we went through, and although I would have wished for it to be done already, it’s good that it’s moving through the system even within a few years of such systemic shock.
A flatland look at the rift between Obama and Wall St. 2010-May-25 at 12:36 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: economy, Obama, Timothy Geithner, Wall Street
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Obama Is From Mars, Wall Street Is From Venus, by John Heilemann, 22-May-2010
The speed and severity of the swing from enchantment to enmity would be difficult to overstate. When Obama was sworn into office, Democrats on Wall Street rejoiced at the ascension of a president in whom they saw many qualities to admire: brains, composure, bi-partisan instincts, an aversion to class-based combat. And many Wall Street Republicans—after witnessing the horror show that constituted John McCain’s response to the financial crisis—quietly admitted relief that the other guy had prevailed.
Today, it’s hard to find anyone on Wall Street who doesn’t speak of Obama as if he were an unholy hybrid of Bernie Sanders and Eldridge Cleaver. One night not long ago, over dinner with ten executives in the finance industry, I heard the president described as “hostile to business,” “anti-wealth,” and “anti-capitalism”; as a “redistributionist,” a “vilifier,” and a “thug.” A few days later, I recounted this experience to the same Wall Street CEO who’d called the Volcker Rule a testicular blow, and mentioned I’d been told that one of the most prominent megabank chiefs, who once boasted to friends of voting for Obama, now refers to him privately as a “Chicago mob guy.” Do all your brethren feel this way? I asked. “Oh, not everybody—just most of them,” he replied. “Jamie [Dimon]? Lloyd [Blankfein]? They might not say Obama’s a socialist, but they come pretty close.”
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For Obama, Wall Street’s cluelessness is a source of intense frustration—“He’s like, ‘What the fuck, you guys?’ ” says a White House official—and its ire toward him one of the cruelest paradoxes of his presidency. Rather than bowing to bailout rage or indulging the yearning for what Geithner calls “Old Testament justice,” Obama believes, justifiably, that he has taken a moderate approach to dealing with the financial system. On arriving in office, he chose to shore up the banks, not nationalize them. The regulations he has advocated aren’t punitive or radical. Despite the occasional burst of opprobrium, his stance has been one he summed up pithily at a meeting with the heads of the largest banks: “My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks.”
This is a solid long piece that tries to find a way to categorize the viewpoints as best as possible, while pointing out the reasonable middle ground fairly often.
From the left: “Why aren’t you putting the screws to Wall St.?”
From the right: “Anything you do that even seems to slow down anything that Wall St. does is completely anti-business.”
From the center: “Main Street is mad at the president because he’s too close to Wall Street, and Wall Street is mad at him because he’s too populist,” Altman says. “Therefore, almost by definition, he’s in the right place.”
From an Integral point-of-view, of course, we see Orange/Achiever reacting to Yellow/Strategist as if it were Green/Individualist… which is to be expected. And we also see Green/Individualist reacting to this instance of Yellow/Strategist as if it were caving in to Orange/Achiever… which is to be expected.
Sigh.
Unfortunately, the Tea Partiers only view Obama through the lens of some actions that he was basically forced to take in the first few months of his administration to, oh, I don’t know, SAVE THE ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMY! People have conveniently forgotten how bad things were at the end of 2008, and how gross the situation was that President Bush left for President Obama.
I mean, if you want to see the Orange/Achiever mindset spelled out, here it is [my italics]:
“They’re not accustomed to being engaged in politics this way,” says a private-equity investor. “Their skin isn’t toughened. They actually take [the attacks by Obama] personally. This is a profession with a lot of smart people, but who aren’t necessarily terribly introspective. They think they actually deserve to make all this money. So any attack on their livelihood is, ahem, unpleasant.”
There is no reform of Wall St. that they’ll be happy with. Anything that takes away an opportunity to achieve short-term profits is anathema. And, again, that’s to be expected. But we still have to manage it from a later level of development.
I’d suggest that if you really think Obama wanted to do trillions of dollars of bailout that it’s your projection onto him. He didn’t like it, but he didn’t have a choice, as he’s spelled out many times in many speeches, including the most recent State Of The Union. If you were in that hot seat in the Oval Office, and were told, “Either we do this, or the world economy goes into Depression” by both conservative and liberal advisors… you’d do it too, no matter what.
Imagine a population with, say, 10% at Integral, meaning Yellow/Strategist or later, and 10% of Congress there, too. We’d easily have the votes to reform Wall St. in a reasonable way that lets Orange/Achiever do its thing within the limits of rational regulation… which is what the Obama Administration has been supporting all along, anyway. If you look at the final Senate bill, it’s pretty much in line with what the Administration has been supporting, without going all that far in terms of breaking up big banks. We might see that sort of move if another one goes bad, but right now we’re taking a reasonable step forward… one that will impact the profitability of large Wall St. institutions only in areas where their activities just almost screwed the entire population of Earth.
We’re not far from getting that 10% – maybe a decade – and it gets even easier at 20%. Hang in there….
Want to cut the federal budget? Try this handy on-line tool! 2010-May-24 at 09:25 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: baby boomers, budget, deficit, Ross Douthat, taxes
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Choose Your Own Fiscal Adventure, by Ross Douthat, 20-May-2010
Good news, America: Using the online budget simulator created by the good people at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, I’ve successfully reduced our debt to a relatively stable 60 percent of G.D.P. by the year 2018. All it took was means-testing Social Security and raising the retirement age to 68, keeping health care reform in place but slashing its insurance subsidies by 20 percent, increasing cost-sharing and premiums for Medicare and raising the retirement age to 67, passing tort reform, returning food stamp spending to 2008 levels, slashing subsidies for agriculture and biofuels, cutting the federal workforce by 5 percent across the board, cutting earmarks by 50 percent, converting the home-mortgage deduction to a smaller credit, replacing the tax deduction for employer-provided health care with a flat credit, increasing the gas tax by 10 cents a gallon, cutting foreign aid and military spending by $200 billion, drawing down troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan to 60,000 in 2016, taxing life insurance benefits, letting the Bush tax cuts expire for high earners and partially phasing them out for the middle class, eliminating the state and local tax deduction, and cutting out a lot of smaller things as well.
How bad is our spending addiction? This list is what Mr. Douthat plugged in just to get us down to a deficit that’s 60% of GDP – in 2018! – but not even close to a balanced budget.
None of the changes he proposed should be difficult to deal with – and if you disagree with some of them, hey, whatever – but we’re going to have to do much more to get to a balanced budget… and the baby boomers who run Congress simply won’t be able to do even what he suggests, never mind the really hard work to get to debt reduction. As our friends in Europe are learning… nothing short of balanced budgets and debt reduction will, in the end, be sustainable for governments going forward.
I’ll play with this tool over the coming weeks, and see what it takes to get to a truly balanced budget, and see how an Integral perspective might help to figure that out.
The culture change in Washington, brought on by the Integral wave of development, can’t come soon enough.
The right kind of political leader 2010-May-23 at 08:21 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: Christie, politics, term limits
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I love Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ). I think I love him more than any politician in the United States right now, except for the President and Rahm Emanuel.
From Gov. Christie: Fixing NJ finances more important than re-election, 19-March-2010:
Using self-deprecating wit and plainspokenness, Gov. Chris Christie suggested Thursday in a speech to the New Jersey Charter Public Schools Conference that his tough talk and tough love for New Jersey might cost him a second term in 2013.
“I will tell you today what I said throughout the campaign and what I mean from the bottom of my heart: I don’t care a bit about being re-elected. Not one bit. The proof of that should be Tuesday’s speech,” Christie quipped, referring to his budget address to a joint session of the Legislature that has resulted in protests and demonstrations by public employee unions upset over planned cuts to their benefits. “If I cared about getting re-elected, I wouldn’t be doing what I did on Tuesday. I don’t care about being re-elected,” he said.
And just watch this two-minute video of him responding to a reporter about taking a “confrontational tone.” You can’t get more straightforward than this. “I came here to govern, not to get re-elected.” God, I love this guy. See the guy in the background smiling the whole time? If I were there, that would be me.
Vodpod videos no longer available.
I mean, one of the guys commenting on this video is already comparing Gov. Christie to Chuck Norris: “Chris Christie once broke every law of physics, at the same time. He was let off with a warning.” That’s solid.
This is the kind of straight-up honesty we’ll get when term limits arrive. I’m not saying we’ll get it from everyone, but we’ll see it more and more as part of the political culture in America, from both sides of the aisle, and that will be a really good thing. These are the kinds of people that can hammer out tough but important agreements on things that move us all forward.
“He was going to go down fighting.” 2010-May-23 at 08:07 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: Congress, life span, Specter, term limits
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Specter Legacy Is Study of the Perils of a Switch, by Katharine Q. Seelye, 22-May-2010
At the time, Mr. Specter said candidly that he could not win re-election in a Republican primary because his party had moved to the right.
“I am not prepared to have my 29-year record in the United States Senate decided by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate, not prepared to have that record decided by that jury,” he said.
And so we have the ungraceful end of an over 40-year career in the Senate. And it took us watching the slow-motion train-wreck of a transparent and desperate switch in political parties, followed by a bitter and cynical primary fight, to get to the end of it.
Is the United States demonstrably better for having people in office for over four decades? Haven’t we seen, over and over, the machinations of those who seek re-election more than they seek to improve the way this nation is governed?
Now, imagine with me a world with congressional term limits. Imagine a world where this kind of pathetic sight didn’t happen. Imagine the simple, graceful turnover of congressional seats, election after election, as roughly 1/6th of Congress would be an open seat. Imagine the new perspectives coming in, every two years. Imagine the old guard, giving their advice about survival and “how things work in Washington” to newer members who never intended to do things that way in the first place, and then imagine the newer members politely humoring the older ones and then doing what they think is right anyway. And imagine the old guard, no doubt still in Congress from grandfather clauses in the term limits amendment that exempt current members (the only way we’d get one), finally leaving in confusion about “the way these new people act around here”, or actually just waiting to die in office.
Imagine the day when the very last senator still serving under that grandfather clause leaves, and every single member of Congress will serve no more than twelve years: two terms in the Senate, or six terms in the House.
Imagine the kind of bold, imaginative legislation we’ll get when that happens… far less influenced by special interests or lobbying. Younger, more energetic, more in tune with what we need at any given time.
And imagine when the average human life span grows past 100 years… and then past 120 years… and then past 150 years… all of which is coming in the 21st Century, and realize how important it is to get term limits into place as soon as possible. If we don’t, we’ll see the first senator to serve 100 years in the Senate during the 21st Century, and that’s not a good thing, from where I sit.
And imagine when we won’t ever again hear lines like:
“Maybe there comes a time when people think, ‘Should I run anymore — is there a time to bow out gracefully?’ ” Mr. Harkin said. “But that’s not Arlen’s style. He’s a fighter. And he was going to go down fighting.”
That’s a day to look forward to.
Yet another group of cultural creatives comes out behind marijuana 2010-May-20 at 08:46 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: baby boomers, marijuana
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This time it’s the chefs.
Marijuana fuels a new kitchen culture, by Kim Severson, 18-May-2010
“Everybody smokes dope after work,” said Anthony Bourdain, the author and chef who made his name chronicling drugs and debauchery in professional kitchens. “People you would never imagine.”
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“There has been an entire strata of restaurants created by chefs to feed other chefs,” Mr. Bourdain said. “These are restaurants created specially for the tastes of the slightly stoned, slightly drunk chef after work.”
Just one more reason that decriminalization will be coming soon enough. What the Boomers didn’t accomplish in this regard, the Integral crowd will.
Molecular nanorobots 2010-May-19 at 03:00 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: medical, nanobot
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Spiders at the nanoscale: Molecules that behave like robots, 12-May-2010
Shrinking robots down to the molecular scale would provide, for molecular processes, the same kinds of benefits that classical robotics and automation provide at the macroscopic scale. Molecular robots, in theory, could be programmed to sense their environment (say, the presence of disease markers on a cell), make a decision (that the cell is cancerous and needs to be neutralized), and act on that decision (deliver a cargo of cancer-killing drugs).
Another thing we need to get to cellular-level medicine is some form of nanobot… something tiny – around the size of a blood cell – and with some intelligence to it.
This isn’t it yet… but we’re right on time with this kind of discovery to see the ultimate results (to go along with those nanopumps) in a couple of decades.
The more hopeful, more realistic view of Europe 2010-May-18 at 09:35 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: Euro, Europe, EuroZone, Herman Van Rompuy, Tony Blair
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In my previous post, I talked about the bleak view of Europe right now. What would a set of more hopeful, more realistic perspectives look like?
Here are seven that, taken together, work for me.
- The idea that the EuroZone would never run into a major political crisis was naïve to begin with, and that crisis has now arrived. It’s been a while since we really needed the grown-ups in European politics to step up, and they’re all a little slow out of the gate and a bit rusty at it, but now that this has come, we’ll see the important leaders taking responsibility for steering Europe through this. I think they’re getting the hang of it, now that the $1T bailout package has been announced.
- No central European decision-maker would seriously consider dismantling the Euro. It’s done too much to smooth relations between countries who have centuries of history of war.
- Some of the governments that supported the bailout will lose their next national elections, because, again, not all voters in Europe are at Green. The results of these elections will be developmentally appropriate for those countries. In fact, it’ll serve as an interesting Integral litmus test of some rough kind to show where populations are operating from during this crisis. They might come from a later stage of development when things are good, but where are they when things seem bad?
- Even those new governments who won elections by harnessing voter anger won’t seriously argue either to end the Euro, or to unilaterally withdraw from it. Some from those parties might talk about ending the Euro to placate their supporters, and might even stir up some populist energy, but when it comes down to it, none of them really want to invest their political lives in making that happen, and any passion around that will subside, probably by 2012.
- It’s going to take years to get the countries with high deficits back on a path to growth. This is a very difficult set of circumstances for any government, or any Central Bank, to manage. If they soft-land this, the way Obama soft-landed the crash he inherited, and you start to see a turnaround in growth in three years, I’d call that a masterful job of managing a potentially fatal blow against the Euro, wouldn’t you?
- The next time Europe appoints a President, they’ll realize the mistake they made choosing someone with no real international power, and put a big name in that spot. Seriously, how many times have you heard the name Herman Van Rompuy during this thing? If you need more than one hand to count that up, you’re reading news stories that I’m missing. Imagine how this would be different if Tony Blair were in that position, and you’ll see how they’ll want someone who can provide that level of international presence and political cover for them in a crisis.
- The Euro will survive… the halo will have come off of it a bit, but having gotten through this major test, it’s future as THE single currency of all of Europe – as an important step to take as a new world economy forms, centered in Asia – will be assured.
And hopefully history will note that this set of leaders took action at a crucial time to ensure that the Euro remained on track.
That’s the hopeful view, and the realistic view, of what Europe is about to go through for the next few years. I’m fascinated to watch it unfold.
The bleak view of Europe right now 2010-May-18 at 09:30 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: crisis, Euro, Europe, EuroZone, Merkel, Obama
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The Euro’s Lost Promise, by David Marsh, 17-May-2010
In any international crisis, there will be those who believe that the crisis-in-question merely portends an even more difficult future.
The dream of monetary union across Europe has turned into a nightmare. Led by France and Germany, European countries have decided to spend colossal sums of taxpayers’ money they cannot afford to heal mounting internal disparities they cannot conceal to shore up an edifice many believe cannot stand.
Yeah, well, when you look at it that way, it does suck.
Look, the voters in Europe aren’t all that different from the voters in the United States. It’s not like they’re all at Exit Green, just about to pop to Second Tier. There are lots of them at Blue, lots of them at Orange, and lots of them at Green. Just shift the center of gravity up about half a level from where the United States is, and you’re getting the picture.
And even within that group, there are different countries with different centers-of-gravity… just like we have amongst the states here.
Some of those countries will have an easier time understanding why this bailout had to be done, and some will have a much more difficult time. That’s to be expected. So the rollercoaster we’re about to go on will, sometimes, look a lot like Mr. Marsh is describing.
There was, however, one thing I heard in the article that made it clear to me where Mr. Marsh was coming from.
Decisive backing came from President Obama, who on the eve of the Brussels meeting telephoned Mrs. Merkel to warn her that Europe’s failure to act could set off another worldwide credit crunch. His intervention was incongruous in the extreme: an American president urging the German chancellor to shore up a currency union that was meant to bolster Europe’s financial independence from the United States.
If you can’t imagine that President Obama would want to weigh in on something that could affect the lives and happiness of over 830 million people in Europe, and billions more around the world trying to do business with Europe… you probably also have a needlessly pessimistic view of things in general, and perhaps a center-of-gravity from somewhere in First Tier which would make global cooperation seem “incongruous.”
So let’s be clear… this is the bleak view of things. This is the warning from those who think the worst-case is coming: the dismantling of the Euro, which could lead to growing tensions and competition amongst those countries who no longer make common cause over currency.
Delivering drugs to individual cells 2010-May-18 at 05:05 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: medical, nano
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Glass electrodes used in nanoscale pump, by Lin Edwards, 17-May-2010
A team of engineers from the U.S. and South Korea has developed what is believed to be the smallest man-made pump ever built, powered by a glass electrode. The pump is about the same size as a red blood corpuscle.
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It could be used for applications such as delivering drugs to an individual cell or for taking fluid samples from single cells. The glass electrodes could also be integrated into other nanoscale devices.
The next major frontier in medicine will be cellular-level treatments that are able to go into the body and target individual cells for help, or for destruction (think cancer). There are many different technologies required to get us there… this is one of them. Widespread access to this kind of medicine is probably about two decades away.
What’s next after cellular-level? Why, molecular of course. Imagine literally rewriting the DNA in your cells… coming in about three decades to a body near you.
Soccer is entertaining 2010-May-18 at 02:06 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: bribery, fifa, soccer, world cup
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No… not for the actual play. That’s dreadfully boring. Seriously. Rest of the world: get a real sport, one that has actual strategy in it. If you’re not familiar with what strategy looks like, check out baseball or American football sometime.
Christ, there’s more strategy in NASCAR than soccer.
No, “football” is entertaining simply for the sheer number of incidents of cheating and match-fixing and bribery found all over the world lately. The latest? It’s a good one. Go grab some popcorn, I’ll wait….
From Lord Triesman’s 2018 bid claims face Fifa review, 17-May-2010:
World governing body Fifa is to probe ex-Football Association chairman Lord Triesman’s "bribery" comments over the bidding process for the 2018 World Cup.
Triesman was caught up in a tabloid sting suggesting Spain could drop its bid if rival bidder Russia helped bribe referees at this summer’s World Cup.
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Triesman was secretly recorded allegedly divulging sensitive information to a former aide, including a claim that Spain and Russia, rival bidders for the 2018 World Cup, were conspiring to bribe referees at next month’s finals in South Africa as part of efforts to win the right to host the tournament.
Man, that’s fun. I mean, it sucks for Lord Triesman… he’s getting pilloried for telling the truth, but the very fact that he said this in polite conversation means that it’s probably true, and that’s awesome.
I mean, what do we have over here, some guys taking steroids? Really? All the serious corruption is out of the major American sports… we’re just down to arguing over whether an umpire has a too-wide strike zone.
Corruption on an international level in the biggest sport in the world. Stay classy, Soccer.
The importance of a developmental view of our enemies 2010-May-17 at 11:09 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: developmental psychology, Spiral Dynamics, SysAdmin
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Combat Generation: Trying to work with an Afghan insurgent, by Greg Jaffe, 17-May-2010
The offer came from an insurgent known as Mullah Sadiq, who had been on the U.S. kill-capture list since 2005. [Lt. Col. Robert B.] Brown assumed that some fighters aligned with Sadiq had taken part in the assault.
Sadiq wanted 50 assault rifles, $20,000 and a promise that U.S. forces would not kill him. In return, he promised to turn against more-radical Taliban insurgents and to begin to work with the Afghan government.
Sadiq’s proposition gave Brown a chance, however tentative, to achieve a victory of sorts in his corner of Afghanistan and redeem the loss of his men.
"This has the potential to work," Brown told his commander.
This is the kind of creative thinking and perspective-shifting that our troops are faced with every day in Iraq and Afghanistan, and everywhere else we’ll deploy the SysAdmin force. Those who are considered enemies can be, in these messy and shifting situations, our allies, and all for far less than the cost of having a single soldier in theater. The fact that our Lt. Col. Brown warmed to this proposal, even from a first-tier or flatland perspective on development, is a powerful testament to his own openness and creativity, and makes me incredibly happy that he’s on our side.
Imagine how many more commanders would be able to make this leap if they knew a little bit about vertical development? What if we trained our military leaders with the basics of Integral philosophy? What if they had at least heard of the idea of Spiral Dynamics or developmental psychology?
All of this is coming, I promise. The military is incredibly fast to adopt useful ideas and run with them. And with that will come a smoother, more predictable and repeatable SysAdmin process wherever it’s required.
In the SysAdmin world, a medal for NOT firing your weapon 2010-May-16 at 17:27 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: military, SysAdmin
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Hold fire, earn a medal, by William H. McMichael, 12-May-2010
U.S. troops in Afghanistan could soon be awarded a medal for not doing something, a precedent-setting award that would be given for “courageous restraint” for holding fire to save civilian lives.
The proposal is now circulating in the Kabul headquarters of the International Security Assistance Force, a command spokesman confirmed Tuesday.
“The idea is consistent with our approach,” explained Air Force Lt. Col. Tadd Sholtis. “Our young men and women display remarkable courage every day, including situations where they refrain from using lethal force, even at risk to themselves, in order to prevent possible harm to civilians. In some situations our forces face in Afghanistan, that restraint is an act of discipline and courage not much different than those seen in combat actions.”
In the SysAdmin force, which will be deeply embedded in civilian areas everywhere it deploys, military personnel face difficult decisions every day around the use of force. Highlighting the importance of restraint in that decision-making process is a natural and simple evolution in how these troops are trained. I look forward to seeing the first of these presented.
As for the objections in the article – “The enemy already hides among noncombatants, and targets them, too. The creation of such an award will only embolden their actions and put more American and noncombatant lives in jeopardy.” – well, our troops already face these decisions. Nothing about the creation of this award makes their lives more difficult than they already are.
Writing the Great American non-Novel 2010-May-12 at 12:37 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: writing
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I don’t read much fiction. With a couple of notable exceptions, I’ve never been moved by fiction. I get done reading a work of fiction, and I always think, “You know, you could have said that in like 20 pages.” So I never really understood the desire of writers to “write the Great American Novel”… I didn’t know what they were trying to accomplish, or why they even wanted to, or what in their experience made them think it was worthwhile.
I just caught an interview on Charlie Rose with Norman Mailer’s widow, and in it, he showed a clip from Norman where he talked about how he thought that he had written some good novels, but that he hadn’t written the “Great American Novel” yet… the one that people would read and it would change their lives.
The only work of fiction that did that for me was The Fountainhead, but I was 16 when I first read it, and interestingly enough that book doesn’t ever make it to the list of “Great American Novels”. Every time I’ve read a “great” novel since then I’m just bored… not interested in the characters, not interested in the story, forcing my way through it.
What has moved me, over and over, is non-fiction. The books that have had the most impact on me have always been prose, and always non-fiction. Until today, I simply couldn’t imagine that that wouldn’t be true for someone else… that they would be moved far more by fiction than non-fiction. It still seems a little weird to me, but that’s why we’re all different, I guess. And then it clicked… I’ve read lots of “Great American” (and foreign) books, but they just weren’t novels; for me, they were non-fiction.
And since I now understand this… I think it’s worth stating a new goal for my book. I want to write the Great American non-Novel. I want to write the book that people read and get excited about. I want it to change perspectives on their lives, on their communities, and on the universe. In musical terms, I want to write intelligent pop.
And I want it to happen with my first book, although I don’t want to be the cliché of the person who writes his great first book and then tries to live up to it for the rest of his life. I suspect there will be more good ones.
But I may as well publicly state this: the first book is going to be great. I won’t settle for anything less.
Samsung to invest $21B in new technology businesses 2010-May-10 at 23:41 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: battery, health care, Samsung, Solar
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Samsung to invest US$21 billion in solar cells, LEDs, more, by Dan Nystedt, 11-May-2010
The 23.3 trillion Korean won (US$21 billion) investment is aimed at developing five new businesses that the company expects to create 45,000 new jobs and generate 50 trillion won in annual revenue for affiliate companies by 2020, Samsung said in a statement Tuesday.
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The company has earmarked 6 trillion won [$5.3B] of the amount for solar cells, using crystalline silicon technology and thin film technology. Another 5.4 trillion won [$4.7B] will be used for rechargeable batteries for hybrid electric vehicles and 8.6 trillion won [$7.6B] will go to LED (Light Emitting Diode) technology for a range of power-saving applications, from computer screen backlights to car electronics and indoor/outdoor lighting.
On the medical side, Samsung will invest 2.1 trillion won [$1.8B] in biopharmaceuticals and 1.2 trillion won [$1.0B] in electronic healthcare equipment, starting from external diagnostic tools such as blood testing devices.
Let’s go over this again.
Five new multi-billion dollar business to step up and own these important emerging markets… markets that will be important over at least the next four decades. This is exciting stuff.
Can you name a U.S. company that’s going to do anything like this? I’ll be honest, I can’t. But it’s important to know where we are as a nation right now in terms of being competitive in these areas, isn’t it?
Betty White on “Saturday Night Live” 2010-May-10 at 22:51 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: Betty White, MacGruber, Saturday Night Live
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Just had to say… if you haven’t seen SNL from this week with Betty White, you should. I think it’s the best episode of SNL ever.
Yeah, I said it.
Basically, the atmosphere was that SNL decided to throw a big party for everyone. We asked for Betty White, we got it. And lots of people came back to support the effort and celebrate. And they even brought in one of the biggest pop stars in the world, Jay-Z, and let him run with like a 10-minute medley before Weekend Update. All of the writers stepped up, and there wasn’t a bad sketch all night. Even in the sketch time slots that you know are traditionally weak, like the one right after Weekend Update. That one was good. And the one right before the sad piano music, that lets you know the show is ending — you know, the one that you already knew would suck, but you watched because, aahhh fuck it, you’ve already watched almost the entire episode, you may as well just watch the last one too — you know, that one? Even that one was good.
And… I hate to say it… even MacGruber was good. Now, I know what you’re thinking… “Somebody actually made a fucking MacGruber movie?!? Seriously?!?” Because I’m thinking it too.
But… oh yeah, where were we? Betty White… yeah, she was amazing, and it was the best SNL of all time. Really. It was.
And if you don’t want to watch the whole thing, at least watch her talk about her muffin.
The United States gets nothing out of shaming Karzai 2010-May-10 at 12:36 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: Afghanistan, foreign policy, Hamid Karzai, Obama
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Obama makes personal diplomacy part of Afghan strategy, by Scott Wilson and Rajiv Chandrasekaran, 9-May-2010
President Obama has bluntly instructed his national security team to treat Afghan President Hamid Karzai with more public respect, after a recent round of heavy-handed statements by U.S. officials and other setbacks infuriated the Afghan leader and called into question his relationship with Washington.
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Karzai’s meeting with Obama in the Oval Office on Wednesday will be the centerpiece of a rare extended visit. Over the next four days, Karzai and many of his senior cabinet ministers will be publicly embraced and privately reassured by Obama of the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan, which officials say will endure long after American forces begin leaving in July 2011.
Karzai has been frightened by the deadline, U.S. officials acknowledge. Obama intends to devote much of his meeting with him to spelling out a long-term relationship that includes far fewer U.S. troops but deeper diplomatic and economic support.
This is a simple, brilliant move by the President. So let’s just state the obvious truth:
Did Karzai steal the election? Yeah, probably.
Is his brother completely corrupt? It sure looks that way.
Does the United States benefit from continuing to remind them of that? Uh, well… no. Not at all. We get absolutely nothing from it.
How can we get the level of cooperation from this government that we absolutely need if we keep reminding them that we don’t like them and don’t think they’re legitimate? What difficult things will they be willing to do for us if we treat them like this? What do they expect from us in this situation?
Let me emphasize this sentence: “Karzai has been frightened by the deadline, U.S. officials acknowledge.” If you were frightened by something that you had to accomplish, and the very people that you’re counting on to help you accomplish it are publicly calling you corrupt and illegitimate, how would you feel? Would you trust the very people who are criticizing you to be invested completely in your success? I wouldn’t… and so you start to understand why President Karzai threatened last month that he might even join with the Taliban in trying to govern.
Conservatives generally like to treat foreign policy as a matter of national interests… personalities only matter to the extent they get in the way of talking about true interests. Liberals generally like to treat foreign policy as if it were a matter merely of psychology… just be nice to people and try to understand them, good things will come. The Integral perspective is: they’re both true, it just depends on the situation. It depends on the level of development of the players, and the level of development of the nations involved, and the overall amount of pressure that’s involved in the given negotiation.
In this case, President Obama wisely reconciles the positions by realizing that the psychological aspects of this are getting in the way of our national interests, and ultimately the national interests of Afghanistan as well. So when the United States says nice things about Karzai… recognize that it’s good for both of us that we do, and if it makes you shift uncomfortably in your seat when you hear it, try to take the broader view that the White House is taking.
On leaving Microsoft 2010-May-08 at 08:52 PDT
Posted by Scott Arbeit in Blog.Tags: job, Microsoft, work
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Yesterday was my last day at Microsoft, and I suppose that, given such an important life transition, I should capture a few words.
First of all, I love the company, as much as anyone could love a company. I always wanted to work there. I believe in their mission. I believe they are uniquely qualified to make a tremendous impact on computing and the way we interface with computers over the next two decades, at least. No company in the world invests more in R&D than Microsoft, and IIRC Microsoft accounts for 3% of the total R&D in the United States.
I also really love their products, with few exceptions. They deliver incredible enterprise and business functionality in a fairly user-friendly way. The consumer products (I’m typing in Live Writer) are also getting really good.
So I don’t have anything bad to say. What I can say is that after looking around the company for other jobs, and looking into my heart, I’m just not quite a fit there. I’ve got a unique set of skills and perspectives around technology that are, by almost anyone’s standards, both broad and deep. As I interviewed around the company, I kept running into groups that looked for even more depth than I have in very specific areas, and didn’t care at all about my breadth and experience. And, ultimately, I didn’t want to dive into that much depth without getting a chance to leverage my broad experience in interesting ways.
I’m not in resistance to that… just observing it. Microsoft is an incredibly successful company, they’ve gotten there doing what they’re doing. Recognizing that I’m not exactly fitting in, as happily as I’d like to, is just giving myself the ability to stop struggling while trying to.
As soon as it became clear to me that I should leave, though, an enormous weight was lifted. I feel energized, I feel excited, I feel alive. I can’t wait to get started on my new life. And I’m grateful for what I have learned in my time at Microsoft… much of it will be useful to me as I continue down this new path.
And now that writing this book and blogging here are crucial parts of what I’m doing, look for a lot more traffic. A lot more.
